As the election keeps creeping closer, the name of Allan Lichtman keeps coming up in the news. Apparently, this professor of history at American University has predicted every* presidential election correctly, dating back when he started doing it in 1980.

Lichtman's model takes thirteen keys, such as "strong short-term economy" and "no foreign or military failure" and assigns a yes or no to each. If the number of positive responses win out, the incumbent party keeps the presidency.

None of Lichtman's supposed clairvoyance would be possible without... a Soviet earthquake expert.

Meet Vladimir Keilis-Borok. Well, you can't meet him, he passed away a decade ago. Kellis-Borok was a seismologist who developed an algorithm for earthquake predictions. He then wanted to see if the model can apply to elections, but, being Soviet and all, free elections were not really an option. So he got in touch with Lichtman for a super team of Jewy election predictors.

So who does Lichtman and Kellis-Brook's model predict will win now?

Ugh... we're tired of this election already.

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*Lichtman originally claimed that the model predicts the popular vote, which, as we all know, doesn't always reflect reality. So he got 2000 right... but also got it wrong, and got 2016 wrong... but also got it right. Stupid Electoral College.

(Editor's update, November 6, 2024: So much for that winning streak.)